Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and, according to new research, incredibly unpredictable, appearing to move independently of most traditional or expected indicators.
The bitcoin price, which has doubled so far this year after recording heavy losses throughout 2018, is hovering around $8,000 per bitcoin. Most other major cryptocurrencies, including ethereum, bitcoin cash, litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP, have also made significant gains in recent months.
Now, it’s been revealed that bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets do not respond to any of the things that usually move traditional currencies, stocks and shares, or commodities, data provider Indexica has found.
“We tested bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies including ethereum and bitcoin cash in the same way we’ve tested popular stocks and traditional currencies,” said Zak Selbert, chief executive of Indexica.
“From our extensive research, and we’ve done more testing around bitcoin and cryptocurrencies than we have for pretty much any other asset we’ve analyzed, it simply appears the bitcoin price and crypto markets just don’t respond as we would expect them to.”
Stocks, traditional currencies, and commodities generally move on company announcements, government policy, and technological developments, while bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices do not, according to Indexica.
It’s been suggested that the bitcoin and cryptocurrency market’s relatively young age could be behind the difficulties in pinpointing what’s caused market moves.
“As we’re dealing with an emerging asset class, crypto evaluation metrics are still largely being developed,” said Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at brokerage eToro. “Stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities all have decades if not centuries of price discovery, so analysts more or less know what to expect.