The pseudonymous creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin price model, Plan B, has published his “worst case scenario for 2021” predictions on social media on Sunday. The analyst says there’s also a “more fundamental reason” to why bitcoin prices have been dropping in June and how the month of July may see “weakness” as well.
Best Case Scenario: $450K Worst Case Scenario: $135K
Five months ago, bitcoin (BTC) prices went parabolic and the value of the leading crypto asset seemingly was following the well known stock-to-flow (S2F) model. At the time, the S2F creator said: “bitcoin stock-to-flow model [is] on track… like clockwork.” The price of bitcoin skyrocketed over $64K per unit but has since lost more than half that value.
At the end of April, Plan B remarked that the downturn was a “mid-way dip” and stressed that “nothing goes up in a straight line.” This past Saturday, Plan B further discussed the infamous death cross pattern in the BTC/USD chart and remained optimistic.
Then on Sunday, Plan B gave an update on his “worst case scenario for 2021.”
“Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down,” Plan B tweeted. “There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K,” the analyst added.
Of course, Plan B made sure that people read his tweet carefully when people asked if they should disregard his model. “Please read my tweet more carefully,” Plan B replied. “I said this is a worst case scenario, not a base case, let alone best case. I am still on S2FX track for my base case. I have explained my personal (non)selling strategy in several interviews,” he added. Furthermore, someone asked Plan B: “What’s the more fundamental reason?”
“Great question. I…