- Ray Dalio claimed “cash is trash” in late January just before markets tanked 30%.
- Now, with stocks back near all-time highs, he’s calling for a “lost decade” in stocks.
- While he may be right over the next few months, a lost decade seems unlikely.
2020 has been a humbling year for professional money managers. Among them, billionaire fund manager Ray Dalio is a standout.
Back on January 21 at Davos, Dalio made the now-infamous statement that “cash is trash.”
His meaning? Investors shouldn’t sit out of the stock market. His statement came out just weeks before the stock market peaked in February.
The resulting drop was the fastest bear market in history, with a speedy 30% plunge in shares. Bridgewater, Dalio’s hedge fund, saw a 15% decline due to performance-related losses.
Dalio Back for More Pain with a New “Lost Decade” Prediction
Now, it sounds like the fund manager is back for another helping of humble pie.
That’s because Bridgewater is now calling for a “lost decade” in stocks.
Could it happen? It’s certainly possible. At the bottom of the housing bust in early 2009, stocks reached levels last seen in 1997. That’s a 12-year period of losses for investors.
But the market surpassed its pre-crash peak of 2007 in 2012—a mere five years later. And that’s the playbook the Fed is following today.
That’s based on factors like declining corporate profit margins. Companies are likely to see a strong bounce back from the recent pandemic-driven pain, but not anywhere near prior levels.
Worst of all, this is a trend that started before the pandemic. The gap has been growing for years, and last occurred during the tech bubble years of the 1990s.
Profit margins could remain compressed for years until consumer demand returns, which would…