Market Wrap: Bitcoin Dips to $11.6K, ETH Options Predict Price Below $400 by End of Year

Bitcoin traders are hitting the sell button Friday while the ether options market loads up on lower prices.

  • Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $11,674 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Slipping 1.4% over the previous 24 hours.
  • Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $11,605-$11,892.
  • BTC below its 10-day and 50-day moving averages, a bearish signal for market technicians.

bitcoinaug21
Bitcoin trading on Coinbase since August 19.
Source: TradingView

Read More: Bitcoin Options Open Interest Nears All Time High

After holding around $11,800 Thursday into Friday, bitcoin started to slide downward around 08:00 UTC (4 a.m. ET), dropping to a 24-hour low of $11,605. Spot volumes were lower to cap off the workweek. It was $138 million on major spot USD/BTC exchange Coinbase, lower than its $179 million average over the past month.

btcspotmonthly
Spot bitcoin volume on major exchanges.
Source: Skew

Over-the-counter crypto trader Henrik Kugelberg expects a bullish, if not record, fourth quarter ahead for bitcoin, even if the number of sluggish market days pile up. “I expect a slower curve but would not be surprised if we reach a $15,000 BTC in October and somewhere around $18,000-$20,000 at year end.”

Kugelberg points to the uncertain economy as giving people reason to swap fiat for crypto investments. “There’s the falling value of the dollar to be priced in; we have not seen the end of the dollar’s fall that is for sure,” he added. Indeed, while the U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s strength versus a basket of other fiat currencies, is up 0.52% Friday, it’s still at lows not seen since June 2018.

dxy2018
U.S. Dollar Index since 1/1/18.
Source: TradingView

In the bitcoin options market, Neil Van Huis, director of sales and institutional trading at liquidity provider Blockfills, noted volatility decreased  this week. Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility, which is a metric to forecast movement in prices, has dropped from 71% Monday to 59% Friday. “Looks like some normalization of volatile trading as…

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