Ethereum (ETH) has been struggling to break past the 38.2% fib level but it failed numerous times. Now finally there seems to be a glimmer of hope and it has broken past that level but the bullish momentum is really weak. If ETH/USD faces a rejection here, we are looking at a major decline not only below $200 but down to the 61.8% fib level which would be around $164. This would be the beginning of a painful period for the altcoin market that could last for months if not years. The whole trend that saw altcoins begin to rally since 2016 when altcoin dominance embarked on an uptrend seems to be coming to an end now.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is now in a position to rise and altcoin dominance (Others.D) is expected to decline. The way this could play out is as we get closer to the next halving, we might see a further loss of interest in altcoins for a number of reasons. First of all, even those that are bullish want to profit off the Bitcoin halving so it makes sense that they would want to sell their altcoins for Bitcoin. However, that is not the only reason. We have recently seen that during times of a stock market decline, Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) performed really bad. So, the whole narrative of cryptocurrencies being an independent and uncorrelated asset class is gone, but there are still some that would keep on thinking about Bitcoin (BTC) being safe haven asset. As for Ethereum (ETH) or other altcoins, nobody makes that argument.
Ethereum (ETH) is in serious trouble if it fails to flip bullish at this point. When I say serious, I meant it in every sense of the word. This was a trend that started in 2016 and we saw Ethereum (ETH) and thousands of useless ICO coins rally against Bitcoin (BTC). However, that seems to be coming to an end now. We can see on the weekly chart for ETH/BTC that the pair has already broken a key support and is now testing the previously broken market structure.