An anonymous trader with a Ph.D. in economics walked Crypto Briefing through the risks and methodology of being a big player in the crypto prediction markets.
How to Predict the Future
Insight_Predict, henceforth referred to as IP, is a seasoned options trader who became active on the PredictIt and BetMoose betting platforms years ago, recently moving into the Polymarket crypto prediction platform. They now have over half of their net worth on these prediction markets.
Turns out yesterday was a good day to take profits on my calls. Here’s a sampling of the profits I booked yesterday. The biggest profits were on Exxon-Mobil calls. I am basically treading water on BP calls, but wanted to lighten my load and reduce risk. https://t.co/wdVqx7pNM5 pic.twitter.com/WUnt2d8DHV
— Insight Prediction (@Insight_Predict) February 17, 2021
IP explained the logic behind the move towards crypto sites, saying, “I think peer-to-peer betting markets are a great innovation relative to the old-fashioned ‘betting against the house’ [system].”
Centralized platforms are notorious for issuing low betting limits and often banning or limiting successful users to ensure profits.
However, sites like Polymarket don’t have risk management features like setting a stop loss. This particular trader embraces these risks but backs up bets with extensive research.
“I place extremely high-risk wagers both when I’m trading options, and when I’m trading on Polymarket generally.”
The trader added that they also placed low-risk bets on Biden to be inaugurated, with a 9% return and President Trump not to become President after losing the election.
Curiously, as of March 2021, traders can still bet that Donald Trump will become president of the USA by the end of the month.
The odds are now so low that Polymarket’s 2% fees would outweigh the 1% gain. Still, traders could have made 7% minus fees as recently as February, highlighting the difference…