First Mover: 11 Election Talking Points on Bitcoin as TRUMP Futures Point to Loss

Bitcoin (BTC) was lower for a third straight day around $13,500, having fallen back from a fleeting 33-month high of $14,093 over the weekend.

In traditional markets, Asian and European shares rose and U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries increased 0.03 percentage point to 0.88%. Gold strengthened 0.2% to $1,899 an ounce.

Market Moves

The U.S. presidential election is finally here. President Donald Trump’s Republicans are as convinced that Democratic challenger Joe Biden will lead America down an irreversible path toward socialism and disorder as Democrats are convinced another four years of Trump could well signal the end of democracy and decency.

A lot of bitcoiners are just putting their faith in bitcoin.

None of this may be justified, or perhaps all of it. First Mover decided that the best way to add value as American voters go to the polls was just to jot down a few bitcoin-oriented talking points.

1) Bitcoin prices barely reacted when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016:

trump-v-clinton
Source: TradingView

2) Bitcoin’s price action for the entire month of November 2016 gets completely lost in the longer-term chart:

nov-2016-hardly-significant

Bitcoin price chart showing November 2016 price action in broad historical context.
Source: TradingView

3) A “blue wave” in which Biden wins and Democrats take control of the upper legislative chamber, the U.S. Senate, could make it easy for the former vice president to implement an agenda that includes spending big on societal issues and climate change. Such fiscal stimulus could expand already record U.S. federal budget deficits and probably would have to be financed by the Federal Reserve via money printing. Bitcoin might benefit from an ostensible weakening in the U.S. dollar.

4) A “red wave” in which Republicans hold the presidency and U.S. Congress is viewed as a “low probability” event, according to Reuters, but could lead to a rally in stock prices and a “risk-on” environment…

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