- Reports suggest that a phase two deal between the U.S. and China could fall apart, causing Dow Jones rally to fade.
- China’s economy is declining and U.S. is still at risk of recession, leaving both countries in favor of a deal.
- European markets seem to be pricing in difficulties around the talks, showing confidence from investors towards a successful phase two deal.
Behind the strong momentum of the Dow Jones is likely the expectations of investors that the trade talks will continue to see progress in the short term.
Trade deal confidence boosts markets; but is it misguided?
The U.S. and China have long struggled on key issues such as industrial policy reforms and the protection of intellectual property.
Unresolved discussions around the sensitive areas of the deal have eventually delayed the signing of a phase one deal, which is yet to be finalized.
Still, markets in the U.S. and Europe seem to have priced in the difficulties surrounding a phase two agreement, as shown by the recent rally of the Dow Jones and the DAX.
According to Bloomberg, the economy of China has been recording slowing growth throughout 2019. In August, China saw its worst single month industrial output growth since 2002.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s chief Greater China economist Helen Qiao said:
In terms of policy room, we still think there’s quite a lot for both the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC, but now it’s a matter of whether they want to use it. What I worry about is that policy makers are hesitating at the moment because of the potential implications on the long term impact, so they’re really fallen behind the curve.
With China’s central bank cautious in introducing more stimuli to…