Well before COVID-19 first made landfall on American soil, the United States’ national debt stood at some $22 trillion, and the U.S. Federal Reserve had pivoted from an interest rate hiking cycle to an interest rate cutting cycle, despite a strong U.S. economy running close to full employment. The central bank’s unprecedented response in the wake of the Great Recession, which introduced unfathomable amounts of leverage into the financial system, led directly to a vicious cycle in which banking policy had to be left in a perpetually accommodative state in order to avoid widespread credit defaults and asset price crashes. As a result of this over-leveraged environment, the Fed had few traditional policy options at its disposal to tackle the economic ruin left behind by the pandemic. The preferred policy method of the U.S. central bank that subsequently materialized during the pandemic was to simply flood the financial system with money, and the debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. soon ballooned to a record 129% in 2020. Now, more than a year after the first COVID-19 case was discovered in the United States, it is hard to imagine a better macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin than the one in which we find ourselves currently living through. The policies enacted by the federal government in response to the virus’ negative economic impact have proven to be a boon to the price of bitcoin, and will continue to push the digital currency to unconscionable levels in the coming months and years. When one looks at the data, the supposition can be made that COVID-19 has proven to be the best thing to happen to Bitcoin.
One of the principle methods being deployed by the Federal Reserve, in tandem with the federal government, to try to resurrect the economy is “money supply expansion.” An illustration of this can be found in this chart of the M2 money stock:
Compare the M2 chart to this bitcoin price chart in the same timeframe:
One doesn’t have to…