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Kraken Intelligence, our team of in-house research experts, has released its Bitcoin Volatility Report for September 2020.
- September kicked off with bitcoin’s annualized volatility touching a 5-week low of 38.8%, followed by a rally above 50% on September 3. It then bounced between 50% and 56%, and snapped a 5-month downtrend by concluding September at 55.4%.
- Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 sank to an 8-month low of -0.27 in the first week before rebounding and finishing the month at 0.60. Inversely, bitcoin’s correlation with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) momentarily turned positive before resuming a 5-month trend of negative correlation.
- It was business as usual last month with September seasonality weighing on global assets and dragging bitcoin -8% lower MoM – in line with the month’s 10-year average (-7%) and median (-8%) returns.
- With bitcoin coming off what is, on average, the least volatile month of the year, one ought to expect incremental market volatility to surface as 4Q2020 begins.
- In addition, the ever-growing number of addresses containing between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC and the number of coins held in these addresses suggests that Bitcoin’s strong fundamentals and vigorous demand from “smart money” is not entirely reflected in bitcoin’s price.
What to Watch for Next
- Better Returns in October: With bitcoin’s worst-performing month now behind us, October may outperform September, just as it has for 8 of the past 9 years, with an average return around +11%. Note that bitcoin has underperformed its monthly average in 6 of the past 9 months.
- The Suppressed Pocket (Again): Twelve times in the past, bitcoin’s annualized volatility bottomed between 15% and 30% before climbing, on average, to 140% and returning…