2020 was unforgettable, especially for Bitcoin. To help memorialize this year for our readers, we asked our network of contributors to reflect on Bitcoin’s price action, technological development, community growth and more in 2020, and to reflect on what all of this might mean for 2021. These writers responded with a collection of thoughtful and thought-provoking articles. Click here to read all of the stories from our End Of Year 2020 Series.
The Bitcoin bet: heads I win, tails you lose.
I bet that going into 2020, you’d never have guessed that a pandemic would take over the world. You couldn’t have imagined that the global economy would come to a halt and that we’d be left in a major financial crisis. You couldn’t have dreamed that central banks would start printing money like it’s going out of style.
But here we are. And you know who is doing pretty well in this environment?
Bitcoin, of course.
Actually, that’s one of the few things that you could have guessed for 2020.
Bitcoin is resilient, predictable and it has an algorithmic monetary policy. That means everybody knew the third Halving was coming this year. And with a lower supply comes higher prices.
Yet, how many times before May did you hear that the Halving was priced in? Remember: Back then, BTC was still below $10,000.
As the year is coming to an end, I think we can finally settle the debate. No, the Halving was not priced in. And you know what? As of today, the Halving still isn’t priced in.
The Bitcoin Halving Is Not Priced In
Do a simple exercise:
- Take the BTC price at the time of the third Halving
- Apply the growth trajectory of the first Halving
- Apply the growth trajectory of the second Halving
Assuming the third Halving cycle looks like the previous two, that gives you a range of possible growth trajectories. No need to do the math yourself, I’ve got you covered. Here is what you get:
We are just at the beginning of…