Digital asset research firm Delphi Digital has released their monthly bitcoin price outlook report, and their research indicates the bitcoin price has reached a bottom for this market cycle.
Delphi Digital originally predicted the bitcoin price would reach a bottom by Q1 2019 in their State of Bitcoin report released in December.
This new report from Delphi Digital follows a somewhat similar paper recently released by Adamant Capital, which indicated that bitcoin has entered the final stages of a bear market and it may be a good time to accumulate some of the digital bearer asset.
Delphi Digital’s reasoning behind their most recent call is mostly based on blockchain analysis, macroeconomic trends, and various forms of technical analysis.
In terms of blockchain analysis, Delphi Digital focuses on the age distribution of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs). This is effectively a measurement of how long users have been holding some bitcoin without moving it at all.
“Analyzing Bitcoin’s aggregate UTXO age distribution over time provides insight into the buying and selling patterns of previous market cycles. This allows us to forecast where we are in relation to prior cycles and what we can likely expect going forward,” says the report.
In their report, Delphi Digital compares the current age distribution of UTXOs to the state of the UTXO set at bottom of the previous market cycle.
“The 1 year+ holder rate during the potential December bottom is within 1% of the 1 year+ holder rate during the previous cycle’s bottom in January of 2015,” says the report.
More specifically, the report indicates the percentage of UTXOs that were at least one year old in January 2015 was 53.5%. This rate was at 53.9% in December 2018. Since then, the rate has grown to…