Bitcoin Price Could Hit $1 Million on February 1st 2028, New Model Suggests

  • If bitcoin follows historical trends, it could tip $1 million by February 1st 2028.
  • Based on extrapolating Timothy Peterson’s ‘never look back’ chart which tracks bitcoin’s lower troughs.
  • The chart echoes Plan B’s ‘stock to flow’ model which puts BTC at $1 million near the end of the next decade.

Plenty of analysts have predicted a million-dollar bitcoin. But few have targeted such a specific date. By analyzing historical bitcoin price action, however, it’s estimated that BTC could hit $1 million on precisely February 1st, 2018.

The million-dollar target has been extrapolated from Timothy Peterson’s ‘Never Look Back’ analysis.

Peterson explains that bitcoin maintains an ever-growing ‘Never Look Back’ price. In other words, a price floor that is never breached as adoption grows. You can visualise it best in the chart below.

Ignore the euphoric ‘bubbles’ and you’ll see a steady rise in bitcoin’s price floor. Source: Timothy Peterson / Craig Hammell

Peterson said:

Bitcoin has a relatively unnoticed and — for most — unknown characteristic. I call it the “Never Look Back Price.” The NLB price is the last time bitcoin was at a particular price level. Once it reached that price, it only proceeded up, it never retraced to that value again.

How we get to $1 million bitcoin

When Peterson plotted the ‘Never Look Back’ price on a logarithmic scale, a strong trend emerged over bitcoin’s decade-long history. Up and to the right.

Timothy Peterson’s original analysis. Source: Cane Island

Craig Hammell, a software engineer at Coinbase, has since extrapolated the historical data to form a rough estimate of future price. The analysis includes a maximum price, minimum price, and median expected price.

Bitcoin’s expected price in 2028 is $1 million and maximum price is even higher, based on extrapolating historical data from the ‘Never Look Back’ chart. Source: Timothy Peterson / Craig Hammell

Based on the model, bitcoin’s…

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