- If bitcoin follows historical trends, it could tip $1 million by February 1st 2028.
- Based on extrapolating Timothy Peterson’s ‘never look back’ chart which tracks bitcoin’s lower troughs.
- The chart echoes Plan B’s ‘stock to flow’ model which puts BTC at $1 million near the end of the next decade.
Plenty of analysts have predicted a million-dollar bitcoin. But few have targeted such a specific date. By analyzing historical bitcoin price action, however, it’s estimated that BTC could hit $1 million on precisely February 1st, 2018.
The million-dollar target has been extrapolated from Timothy Peterson’s ‘Never Look Back’ analysis.
Peterson explains that bitcoin maintains an ever-growing ‘Never Look Back’ price. In other words, a price floor that is never breached as adoption grows. You can visualise it best in the chart below.
Bitcoin has a relatively unnoticed and — for most — unknown characteristic. I call it the “Never Look Back Price.” The NLB price is the last time bitcoin was at a particular price level. Once it reached that price, it only proceeded up, it never retraced to that value again.
How we get to $1 million bitcoin
When Peterson plotted the ‘Never Look Back’ price on a logarithmic scale, a strong trend emerged over bitcoin’s decade-long history. Up and to the right.
Craig Hammell, a software engineer at Coinbase, has since extrapolated the historical data to form a rough estimate of future price. The analysis includes a maximum price, minimum price, and median expected price.
Based on the model, bitcoin’s…