Despite the high volatility seen across many altcoins, especially those based in China, the rest of the market is holding steady without much action. Some of the most prominent technical analysts in the space, such as Tone Vays, are expecting more downside. The following technical analysis will evaluate whether the top three cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, are indeed bound for a decline.
After surging to nearly $10,500 on Oc. 26, Bitcoin began consolidating between the 61.8 and the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level. This consolidation phase led to the formation of a descending parallel channel on BTC’s 4-hour chart. Since then, every time this crypto hits the bottom of the channel, it bounces off to the middle or the top. But, when it hits the top, it falls back to the middle or the bottom.
Bitcoin is now trading around the bottom of the channel threatening to break out in a downward direction. If BTC is able to close below the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level, it would likely move down to the next level of support around $7,900. And, if the selling pressure behind it is strong enough it could even test the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level, at $7,250.
Nevertheless, a spike in volume that takes BTC to hit the top of the channel and close above it could invalidate the bearish outlook. If this happens, then Bitcoin could push for higher highs considering that the parallel channel on the 4-hour is part of a bull flag.
This type of technical formation is considered a continuation pattern. As Bitcoin surged to nearly $10,500, it formed the flagpole. And, the current consolidation period could be creating the flag. An increase in demand could result in a breakout in the same direction of the previous trend.
By measuring the height of the flagpole, this technical pattern estimates a 25 percent upswing upon the breakout point. If validated, Bitcoin could rise to $11,300.
The sudden spike in prices…