It’s a drag when you read in the mainstream press that a financial instrument has gone up a long way. This is normally the end of that run. The mainstream media has its faults but it is normally accidentally flawless in calling the bottom and top of markets by reporting the move.
Want to pick the bottom of the credit crunch, simply wait for the reportage. This observation has made me a lot of money on a number of occasions.
So it is sad to see the mainstream picking up on bitcoin’s (BTC) bounce. However, I don’t think this is the end. I hope it isn’t too. As anyone who has followed my bitcoin prediction will note, in addition to being on the money, I’ve been stating that I’ve been acquiring constantly below $5,000 with much under $4,000. As such I have coin and it is ‘talking my book’ to see further significant gains.
I remain positive that we will see above $10,000 but this prediction is not enough for me, I want to have a grasp of the top of the next cycle.
To say BTC is going to $10,000 is a bit like the statement that 50% of people that fall from over 20 feet die. It is not a particularly useful number for those concerned about falling 32 feet, because it is certainly the case that 99% of people die from a fall over 500 feet and the key numbers are obscured by the range of outcomes rolled up into an average by such a simple statement.
Is BTC going above $10,000 and onto $100,000 or only $11,000?
For most financial instruments there simply isn’t the range of travel to be considered but in crypto there is seemingly no obvious upper bound.
In my last article I postulated on some potential ceilings, but it’s anyone’s guess which one might be valid, if any, so it’s left to us to look at the price action to have a guess.
In the short/medium-term this is my guess: