Economists have long suspected a correlation between Bitcoin’s price action and its hash rate. Now, it appears there is a way to predict the market by looking at what happens when Bitcoin’s difficulty is negatively adjusted as hash rate drops.
According to a recent analysis performed by PlanB (@100trillionUSD), there appears to be a direct correlation between Bitcoin’s price and its difficulty adjustment cycle.
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 12, 2019
Looking at the chart, it is clear that there is a three-phase relationship between Bitcoin’s price action and its mining difficulty. After each all-time high, we can see that mining difficulty gradually increases for a short period (shown as red dots), before slowing down (green and orange dots) and eventually decreasing during each difficulty retargeting period (red dots).
The concept here is that the arrows indicate miner capitulation. As we can see, shortly after Bitcoin’s value reaches an all-time high, difficulty tends to reduce while miners capitulate in the subsequent months. This capitulation is at its greatest at the base of every bearish run, as can be demonstrated by the abundance of blue dots (reduced difficulty).
After miners capitulate, Bitcoin tends to see a transient price increase, followed again by a negative difficult adjustment during which miners again capitulate (yellow arrows). This again leads to bullish price action, which eventually cools off, leading to a negative difficulty adjustment and subsequent miner capitulation, This proceeds to happen a third time, with this miner capitulation (green arrow) instead leading to Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high.
Based on the chart, we can see that since late 2018, Bitcoin has already experienced two out of three miner capitulation cycles: the first in December 2019 (red arrow) and the second just recently (yellow arrow). Because of this, if the trend…