An Outsiders Take On Bitcoin Price Prediction : Bitcoin

Hello everyone, I’ve never really visited this community before but I was hoping to share a few ideas with everyone!

 

First off, I’ve never purchased bitcoin nor have I really had any other ideas about it other than ‘man I wish I got in on that early.’ Being quarantined has made me expand my research into areas i’ve never really touched before and i’ve made a decent little discovery that hopefully a few of you can appreciate.

 

I don’t know how to exactly define my career other than a trend finder. Anywhere from finance to microeconomics trends, one of the things I like to do when finding stocks that will break out is using Bollinger Bands. They great for seeing the upper and lower sides of a stock. I also like using a 5 day exponential moving average. None of what i do is new it’s basic really. I like finding stocks that have an EMA that hugs the upper Bollinger Band with consistency. Here’s an example using Amazon look at the pink line thats the EMA. I like to follow that EMA hugging the upper Bollinger Band until the inevitable separation of the two begin and the stock price begins its downfall. This has shown to be no different with Bitcoin. Here is the chart of Bitcoin leading up to its first big burst. Notice the pink line and how close it is to the upper band. Had I seen this way back then I would’ve been in on it in a second.

Did you see how when the price shot up the upper band and pink EMA line began their separation? Let’s take a closer look

We can see that BTC had been trending upward but then suddenly in late November there was a dramatic upturn, this won’t be that last time we see that. You can see the EMA get tighter with that upper band. Around that time the price was approximately $8,900 roughly half of what the eventual top price would be of the boom.

 

Quickly deep separation begins and price begins its free fall.

 

Lets fast forward a year to early 2019. The EMA had dove below the Moving Average and then we see the curve back trending upward.

Now…

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