$10K Bitcoin Price Back in Play? Key Metric Hints at Next Supercycle

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to grow week in and week out, as another 9% has been added to its value since last Sunday. 

However, with the block reward halving being just over two weeks away, and mining difficulty set to increase another 5% in little over a week, is the bull market now upon us? Or will the halving be another non-event much like other hyped up narratives like Bakkt, institutional money entering, or the VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Today, I want to look at a couple of different scenarios that I am watching for in the week ahead.  

Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

The top of the channel 

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Taking a look back at last Sunday’s analysis, I shared two possible outcomes I was looking at. The inevitable path to zero versus the slow bullish grind to $10K. 

As can be seen from the daily chart above, Bitcoin is following the green path and is currently sitting at the top of the ascending channel. As such, it’s reasonable to expect that should the slow and steady upward path continue, we are due for a small pullback to one of the two price levels.

The channel’s moving average is around $7,300. Or, should this fail, the support of this channel sits around $6,600. Holding either of these levels will still firmly plant $8,000 as a reasonable target to expect by this time next week. 

However, this ascending channel was drawn to reflect a continuation of the pre-bull trap price action. As such, there is another scenario that could be playing out, which plants $10K Bitcoin as a target as early as next week. 

The bottom of the channel 

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

In this channel, it plants the current price about $500 above the support of $7,120. This would put overhead resistance first at the moving average of $8,440 and then as high as $9,800.    

As such, watching both of these scenarios to see which is first invalidated could give us a clearer picture of where the Bitcoin price could close by…

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